Shogun (FX) Season 1 prop bets (Spoilers) (Add answers)
May 1
Mariko will survive this season
Toronaga will kill his brother
Toronagas brother is secretly working against the council
John saves Toranaga's life at least once after episode 6
The Protestant Church start a conflict with Toranaga (ie they attack first, not him) and it gives him the upper hand somehow
Oshiba and Mariko meet and plot a cooperative alliance
John uses his own ship to participate in some battle, whether for transport or for warfare
The spy fights as a samurai in the battle of osaka city
John will act like he doesn't understand a Japanese sentence when he actually does, at some point, for strategic effect
Buntaro will commit seppuku
there will be a crimson sky attack on the council city that makes use of the cannons' improved precision
John will sail away from The Japans in his own ship
Yabushige will end the series/die aligned with Toranaga
Yabushige will be killed for his treachery
Yabushige will fully side with Ishido
Toranaga will be impeached
Lady Mariko will commit seppuku
Cannons will be to devastate an army in a battle
Ishido will die
Toranaga will win the conflict

Probably won't get very many traders because of the network effects of social media and the difficulty of the manifold algorithm to capture totally novel topics, but whatever, I'll still have fun with it. Highly recommend giving this show a watch.

I also have no knowledge of the book, feel free to bet based on that knowledge but I'd prefer to keep comments spoiler free from the book, or at least tagged. Thanks!

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
John uses his own ship to participate in some battle, whether for transport or for warfare
bought Ṁ20 John uses his own sh... YES

This seemingly happened at the end of Episode 8, no?

@benshindel transport, that is?

Mariko and John will have sex

This definitely happened lol

The Protestant Church start a conflict with Toranaga (ie they attack first, not him) and it gives him the upper hand somehow

you mean the catholic church? afaik the protestants aren't present

Mariko and John will have sex
bought Ṁ100 Mariko and John will... YES

This can resolve - episode 4!

@Laya lol watch again

@Santiago iiiiinteresting

sold Ṁ2 Mariko and John will... NO

she said like, i hope u liked the service, and he clearly acted like he knew it was her, but her comment was implying, i thought, that she didnt do it out of interest but out of duty or wtv. Could be a misinterpretation

@Bayesian she did it and confused him by saying that. it's a secret between them bc she can't admit to it happening

@mattyb Am I missing something? It occurred in Episode 4, 6 minutes from the end of the episode.

@Laya it’s @SemioticRivalry‘s market and call here. i think it’s still pretty sketchy to count Ep 4, which wasn’t clear, but I completely defer to Semiotic’s discretion

bought Ṁ70 Mariko and John will... YES

@mattyb Oh got it! I thought you might have some information I somehow missed.

@SemioticRivalry I think it's clear they slept together - if you watch the scene with the screen bright, you can clearly see it's the same actress and all. John did not fight/freak out after he saw it was Mariko there. Here are episode recaps that include reference to them sleeping together: Vulture, GameRant, Esquire, and NY Times.


Edit: Whoops, wrong button!

opened a Ṁ1 there will be a crim... YES at 53% order

i can just add guesses i have about a show before it's over and we know what'll happen? epic

bought Ṁ5 Oshiba and Mariko me... NO

ok im betting them down bc they're too specific guesses to be more likely than 50% but

The Council of Regents will be full again by the end of Episode 7
sold Ṁ12 The Council of Regen... NO

does this mean that at any point before the finale the council is full? if so, it resolves

bought Ṁ5 Ishido will die NO

One thing to maybe try to enhance clarification about is end of season cliffhanger deaths or confirming deaths in general? We've already seen the series bring one character back from the 'dead'. I'm curious if you would have kept that market open in that instance (since it was also highly plausible that we would have never seen that character again).

@Charlie i think i probably would have resolved that one, but i can always unresolve if something like that happens

Show is amazing!

@SneakySly I love it so much

great market

@mattyb thanks <3