Will I get 80% or higher in my Differential Equations Final Exam (on June 7th)?
9
107
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resolved Jul 3
Resolved
NO

This is a primarily motivational market and my betting does not reflect my own beliefs about how well I'll do. Please refer to notes below for caution as to why betting no may be wise, e.g. the fact I am not particularly math inclined and that I have previously failed 5 math subjects at university overall.

Past Paper Result Tracker

Attempt 1: 9/80. 8 days away from exam. This was under not quite test conditions and in multiple sittings but still very concerning result.

Resolves 5th of July when I get my marks back, test itself is on 7th of June. Will comment daily updates about my study progress. This is an accountability project to keep myself honest about how much study I am doing and how effective it is, as well as an experiment to see if I can make personal change in my life whilst also getting the handle of Manifold.

I'll keep this updated with my study progress and feel free to comment any questions you think are relevant.

Otherwise, some notes to make your bets:

  • I am not a particularly math-inclined person, I added a math degree as a double degree because I got into EA/8000 hours content and decided it would be a good way to learn programming/math/statistics for my career going forward

  • I have failed 5 university math subjects in the past but have recently gotten my act together study-wise and gained a deeper appreciation for math

  • In regards to how much study time I have, I'm working full-time and play for a semi-pro sports team so Monday-Friday 9am-5pm is barred from study and four of those evenings are taken up by practice sessions/games

  • In this subject I got 43% on a class test with no materials permitted weighted 30% of the mark, 50% on a take-home assignment weighted 10% and am awaiting marks for another take-home assignment weighted 10% which I predict will be 50-60%. So right now I'm sitting on 18 marks out 40 and will probably get to around 23 out of 50, hence I need at least a 40 to boost my marks

  • The exam is take-home with no restrictions on content you can use. However, I'm not going to cheat in any form.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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You should study fourier series! They are cool!

predicted YES

Only got 33/50 in the end ☹️ thanks to everyone anyway for betting on this, it was super motivating!

sold Ṁ172 of YES

This test was lowkey really easy...kicking myself for not studying Fourier series and heat equations before the test. I've definitely lost minimum 9-11 marks at this point in the test so I'm selling some no shares. Thanks to everyone who bet on this market! If anyone is interested in the test paper/my answers, let me know and I can share each with you for your bets

bought Ṁ30 of YES

1 day til exam: ehhhh ngl pretty nervous about this now. Have attempted all kinds of practice Qs and have notes on them except for PDEs but still could be way more prepared. It's still open book so I'm hoping youtube, stackexchange and my tutorial solutions and past exam solutions will save me

predicted YES

2 days til exam: going pretty well with the easier topics, just need to revise harder subjects now as I haven't touched them at all (Fourier, PDE, separation of variables)

bought Ṁ240 of YES

3 days til exam: not tracking that great because I was working on my other subject, but cramming hard now. Just going to exclusively go back and forth on past papers and specific question types that they've tested.

predicted YES

5 days til exam: terribly organised and all of my plans went wrong, only managed to get in a couple of Anki reviews today.

predicted YES

6 days til exam: no study today, just did my Anki reviews but still at a low volume. Need to add some more conceptual ones pre exam

bought Ṁ30 of YES

7 days til exam: 2h study. Started supplementing my Anki flashcards with step-by-step solution guides to use during the exam for each kind of question I'm predicting will be on the test. I'm trying as much as possible to draw on example solutions that haven't been in a past paper so that I can get the full benefit of those when I sit them.

Spent the majority of my time working through power series solutions for DEs and attempting practice questions as this doesn't feel intuitive to me even with the example solutions open. Made good progress in executing the procedures involved efficiently.

bought Ṁ24 of YES

8 days til exam: continued on from the past exam that I began at 1:30am this morning after work. Finished it with a score of 9/80 or 11%, marked quite harshly in the absence of a proper marking guide.

Completely ran out of time and didn't finish over half the test. Reasons for this:

  • did this in small chunks in different areas/locations trying to find a quiet place to study over the course of the day. Need to ideally study in the same place as much as possible to assist with recall during the test

  • Didn't have a second monitor which made switching between content very slow and tedious

  • Wasted lots of time looking for material when I should have had it all in my own searchable notes

All fixable issues, will aim to retest myself in three days time once above bugs are fixed.

predicted YES

9 days til exam: Slightly more productive but didn't make enough time for study. I did 2 pomodoros on a past paper after a busy day and then had to head to bed as I have a long week ahead and want to pace myself.

Pointed out some useful gaps in my prepared notes on Variation of Parameters and finding a solution y2 from a given solution y1. Tomorrow the plan is to complete the exam and continue making similar notes of missing/difficult content. I would like to iterate like this until about Sunday and then I will target the trickiest content/make some of my own questions

bought Ṁ10 of YES

10 days til exam: very unproductive. Only two things that I would count as study was my daily Anki flashcards and a Pomodoro of working through Fourier series content. Finished the Anki cards in 6 minutes and some of those crossed over into my Complex Analysis cards.

I watched part of a 3B1B video on Fourier series and kind of understood what was going on but don't think I'd worked with enough questions yet to actually need the intuition and felt like I was just using that as an excuse not to do as much work. Tried a past exam question on Fourier cosine series and struggled even with textbook assistance.


Study by topic: Green: whether I get a single question correct for the topic, in which case I study it in two days. Red will mean I got it wrong and need to study again the next day.