Background

Samuel P. Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" thesis, introduced in a 1993 Foreign Affairs article and expanded in his 1996 book, proposes that post-Cold War conflicts would primarily arise from cultural and religious differences between civilizations rather than ideological or economic factors. Huntington identified several major civilizations including Western, Islamic, Sinic (Chinese), Hindu, Japanese, Latin American, Orthodox, and potentially African.

The thesis suggests that as non-Western civilizations gain economic, military, and political power, they increasingly assert their cultural values and reject Western ones. This creates potential for conflict along the "fault lines" between civilizations.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on whether a clear "winner" emerges in what could be characterized as a clash of civilizations by 2050. For resolution purposes:

1. A civilization will be considered to have "won" if it achieves clear global dominance in terms of economic power, military strength, cultural influence, and technological advancement, while other civilizations acknowledge or adapt to its leadership.

2. The market will resolve as NO if:

   • No single civilization achieves clear dominance

   • Major civilizations continue to coexist with relative parity

   • The concept of distinct civilizational blocs becomes obsolete due to globalization or other factors

   • The world order evolves in a way that doesn't align with Huntington's civilizational framework

3. The market will be resolved based on consensus among credible international relations experts, major academic institutions, and global governance bodies regarding the state of civilizational relations.

Considerations

• Huntington's thesis itself doesn't necessarily predict a "winner" but rather ongoing tensions and conflicts between civilizations.

• The concept of civilizational "victory" is not clearly defined in international relations theory.

• Many scholars critique Huntington's framework as oversimplified, arguing that intra-civilizational differences can be as significant as inter-civilizational ones.

• Future global challenges like climate change, pandemics, or technological disruptions may foster inter-civilizational cooperation rather than competition.

• The rise of transnational issues and identities may fundamentally alter how we understand civilizational boundaries.

• Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Civilizations as They Exist Now:

  • Current State: The market will consider the civilizational groups as they are defined today. Currently, the Anglos are dominant.

  • Potential Shifts: Future changes in dominance are expected, with the possibility that other groups (such as subcontinentals or the Chinese) might overtake the Anglos.