New pipeline project proposed in Canada in next 6 months?
14
1kṀ1910
Dec 8
23%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 8, 2025, a new pipeline project is proposed by a fossil fuel company and submitted to any Canadian government for consideration/review/approval. This must be publicly announced and verifiable through official government releases or reputable news sources. If no such approval is granted by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 2025, Canada's federal and provincial governments have been actively discussing measures to expedite the approval process for major infrastructure projects, including pipelines. Prime Minister Mark Carney has proposed reducing the approval timeline from up to a decade to just two years, aiming to stimulate economic growth and reduce reliance on the United States. (reuters.com) But I can't tell what projects would be proposed, who would propose it and how they would justify it economically.

Help refining the resolution criteria of this question would be appreciated.

  • Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a pipeline project to count toward YES resolution:

    • A completed proposal must exist (not just work in progress on a proposal)

    • A private company must commit to building it

Merely working on a proposal without private company commitment is not sufficient for YES resolution.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@MRME the text says they're working on a proposal and none of the private companies have committed to building it. If they complete the proposal and a private company commits to building it, then I'll resolve to YES.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Seanny123 now does not seem like a good time to propose a pipeline. Maybe next year though? https://www.ft.com/content/c6ab5811-56ce-47ea-b074-23623cf71bcf

New agreement between provinces to encourage pipeline construction, but the only case they discuss is to stop going through the US (Wisconsin, Michigan) on the way to a refinery in Sarnia https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2181022/ontario-saskatchewan-alberta-protocole-entente

LNG project being discussed in Québec. https://www.thestar.com/business/norwegian-company-has-plans-for-lng-export-project-in-quebec/article_991e096c-a1ee-5262-92e5-79d3292ebf9d.html

The province most opposed to fossil fuel projects?!? I figured a James Bay project would be proposed first? I clearly don't understand the economics of transporting fossil fuels.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy