Which influenza subtype/lineage will be the first to cause 10 million deaths in a single year?
3
Ṁ420Ṁ782044
40%
21%
A H5N1
5%
A H9N2
5%
A H7N7
5%
B/Victoria
5%
B/Yamagata
4%
A H1N2
4%
A H7N9
4%
A H3N2
4%
A H2N2
3%
A H1N1
Resolves to the subtype/lineage of influenza that is first confirmed as causing 10 million global deaths in a year. Or resolves as N/A if none of them do before 2043.
Details:
-"Year" means a calendar year (not rolling), counted from January 1st until December 31st.
-Deaths count from any combination of clades/subclades within the subtype/lineage.
-If "confirmed deaths" < 10m < "suspected deaths", then we'll make a judgment call if it's credibly >10m.
Answers are free reponse, in case new subtypes/lineages are discovered, or if influenzas C/D develop anything noteworthy.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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