Will ProMED report a novel influenza outbreak in Asia by March 31, 2026?
1
100Ṁ22Mar 30
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if ProMED-Mail reports a confirmed novel influenza outbreak (e.g., H5N1 human-to-human cluster) originating in Asia before April 1, 2026. Sources: Official ProMED posts only. This is an Altwese MVP for early pathogen detection via collective intelligence.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?
3% chance
Will the WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2025?
5% chance
Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
3% chance
"Will the World Health Organization officially declare H5N1 a pandemic before December 31st 2025
3% chance
Will there be a 1m+ bird flu outbreak in humans in the US by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Nod be able to publish a model of the covid outbreak in Wuhan, before 2026?
9% chance
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
21% chance
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?
58% chance
[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
30% chance
Bird flu H5N1 outbreak in Australia in 2025 or 2026?
21% chance