Will ProMED report a novel influenza outbreak in Asia by March 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ22Mar 30
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if ProMED-Mail reports a confirmed novel influenza outbreak (e.g., H5N1 human-to-human cluster) originating in Asia before April 1, 2026. Sources: Official ProMED posts only. This is an Altwese MVP for early pathogen detection via collective intelligence.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will I get the flu by June 2026?
14% chance
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
21% chance
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?
58% chance
[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
30% chance
Bird flu H5N1 outbreak in Australia in 2025 or 2026?
21% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
24% chance
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before the end of 2040?
74% chance
Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?
21% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
63% chance
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
33% chance