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Absence of evidence is evidence of absence; resolving NO.

@SonataGreen @OperationIvy85 @Boklam any reason to further delay the NO resolution?

@ScottLawrence None that I am aware of

I'm keeping this open for another week to allow people to bring forward any evidence that the balloon was shot down, or any arguments why a NO resolution should be further delayed. If by March 1st I can't find any indication that this is still an active possibility, I'll resolve.

@ScottLawrence can you close a little earlier so that any mana won can be used in the donation program closing at the end of the month? I can't remember if the donation program will still be open on March 1, but mana becomes worthless to me that day

@PatrickAupperle the donation program is not currently planned to close

@ScottLawrence Thanks for pointing that out. I missed the update where they said they resolved the issue

Doesn’t make a lot of sense to shot anything down over the Pacific that isn’t a direct threat. Wait until you can catch or recover it. 40 ft of water off the coast of North Carolina is perfect!!

@BTE I'm terrified of ambiguous resolutions so I generally don't bet on my own markets any more. But I'm confused about why this market is so high. My understanding is that it's a violation of some international law or norm to shoot down the balloon over international waters. Likely this one is still under control, and won't casually drift over the U.S. as the first did. I would bet the probability down to 20% at most...

@ScottLawrence You are absolutely right. We aren’t about to do anything provocative. This could be the Chinese trying to bait us into making a tactical error that makes their indignant position on the first balloon less untenable. Right now they look careless at best, amateurish or just plain weak at worst.