Will Pope Emeritus Benedict survive to 2023?
Plus
75
Ṁ21kresolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Benedict is alive when 2023 begins (according to his timezone). Context: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/29/1145997483/benedict-xvi-health-vatican
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@EdwardKmett Yeah, I saw these odds and thought "surely there's a non-zero chance the newspaper ran the obituary early, or a timezone was wrong, or the market creator misclicks and misresolves, or the journalist was rigging the prediction markets to cash out, or SOMETHING stupid"
Related questions
Related questions
Will the Pope survive 2024?
95% chance
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?
69% chance
Will Pope Francis die in office?
74% chance
Will Pope Francis (Jorge M. Bergoglio) still be Pope on Dec 31, 2024?
94% chance
Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will Pope Francis abdicate before 2025?
5% chance
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2035?
14% chance
Will Pope Francis abdicate?
19% chance
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2040?
11% chance