Will DJB win his FOIA lawsuit against NIST?
8
17
160
2025
66%
chance

This market resolves YES if, after all opportunities for appeals have been exhausted, the final ruling is in DJB's favor, and NO if the final ruling is in NIST's favor.

In case of a settlement or a not-easily-classified ruling, I will use my judgement (and the crowd wisdom), but generally plan to defer to whether DJB announces himself satisfied with the outcome.

See context here: http://blog.cr.yp.to/20220805-nsa.html

Aug 5, 7:46pm: Because of the risk that the resolution requires some judgement call, I will not be betting in this market.

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predicts YES
I wasn't able to find data on the results of lawsuits, but I was able to find data on FOIA lawsuit filings. https://foiaproject.org/2019/12/15/foia-suits-rise-because-agencies-dont-respond-even-as-requesters-wait-longer-to-file-suit/ has some interesting analysis of how the number of FOIA lawsuits filed because agencies failed to respond has increased 4x from 2015 to 2019.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
I suspect the lawsuit will result in increased compliance to some extent - producing responses to some questions, although not all.
Wow DJB's blog post had far too much background before it actually described the lawsuit. The info of the FOIA request is at the bottom: > For example, I filed a FOIA request in June 2021 asking for "copies of all NIST records of communication between NSA and NIST regarding the NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization Project". This request has, so far, produced zero records. NIST has stonewalled, ignoring the FOIA deadlines. > Civil-rights firm Loevy & Loevy has now filed suit on my behalf in federal court, the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, to force NIST to comply with the law.