Conditional on TikTok being "banned" in the U.S., will I be able to install it?

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Ṁ1439

Jan 1

83%

chance

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Once the media reports that a "ban" on TikTok is in effect, I will attempt to install TikTok on my phone. I won't do anything super complicated or risky---maybe just google "how to install tiktok" and follow one or two sets of instructions. If I manage to succesfully install tiktok after an hour or two of trying this resolves YES; if I get bored first this resolves NO.

I won't be betting in this market. If there is no ban by the end of 2024, this market will resolve either N/A or MKT. (I'm inclined to resolve MKT so that people can keep their winnings from trades, but then I reserve the right to take appropriate measures to avoid manipulation.)

I have an Android (and no intention to change this). Also, success requires that TikTok actually works. If a message pops up saying "installed" and then I can't watch stuff or whatever else I'm supposed to do, that'll be a NO resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

TikTok Ban

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Selling to free up mana.

(I recommend: you don't install random APKs from outside of the Google Play store, especially of something popular like TikTok. They might contain code you don't want on your device. Even though Googling "how to install TikTok" totally might find APKs like that. I didn't bet here)

I'm sticking to my promise not to bet in this market (since the goal is not to incentivize me to install tiktok, which would be idiotic), but I should register my prediction anyway. My estimate for the probability is 85%.

A couple of questions that matter hugely for this market:

Is your phone an iPhone?
Does success mean "able to watch a TikTok video", or "the app launches at all"?

@LoganTurner 1. Android.

2. It's gotta actually work. "Being able to watch videos" seems like a good threshold, so I'll use that.

I've updated the description accordingly.

@ScottLawrence Thanks! My prediction is that you will get bored before completing the steps of finding an APK + side loading + VPN-ning. 😃

predicts YES

@LoganTurner doing that from the start is nearly guaranteed to work and would only take a couple dozen minutes.

@RobertCousineau if I'm gonna have to pay for a VPN, this'll be a NO I'm guessing. Can't see myself doing that.

@ScottLawrence quite understandable. I'd be very surprised if a VPN was necessary though :)

Just enabling sideloading through the settings on your phone and grabbing the APK would be enough bar really weird circumstances.

@RobertCousineau me too. Surprised this market is trading so low.

@ScottLawrence I'm having trouble imagining a ban that doesn't include IP blocking as a requirement. Certain crypto and illegal betting apps already do this.

@LoganTurner that would be at the level of the TikTok app right? Why would they comply?

@LoganTurner you seem to have much more belief in the competence of our legislative/regulatory agencies than I do. I can imagine an order telling Apple/Google to remove it from their app store much easier than them banning an often changing list of IP's.

TikTok also would have to be complacent about the ban for most plausible forms.

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