Will I update towards a more positive view of auto-scientific-literature-review site Consensus in the next six months?
60
208
Ṁ4.3KṀ105
resolved Jul 14
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Consensus is a website/app that has a goal of "mak[ing] getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query". They kindly offered me the chance to test an early version of their product last summer - the results were http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_masks.png and http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_ketamine.png , which I was not very impressed by. Since then, their team has continued to be very nice to me, answer my questions, and put another eight months or so of work into their product, which I have not yet checked. They recently launched a public beta, which you can see at https://consensus.app/blog/introducing-consensus/ . My current guess is that automating literature review doesn't work (even hiring PhDs to do literature review barely works!) and that this project will operate as a slightly higher-tech Google Scholar that's not worth sacrificing the familiarity and simplicity of the latter.
This market will resolve as positive if, on 8/19/2022, my opinion of Consensus is significantly more positive than the above. I would certainly resolve it positive if I routinely used Consensus instead of Google or Google Scholar when investigating (some subset of) scientific questions, or if I heard buzz from researchers that they did this and really appreciated it. I expect that the Consensus team will continue to let me assess their product free of charge, but if not, the amount I will pay for a subscription in order to resolve this prediction market will be a function of what the prediction market predicts - higher probability of me liking it = more money I will spend in order to test this. This could produce weird behavior, but I think it's more likely they'll continue to let me test it for free and this won't come up.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ237 | |
2 | Ṁ220 | |
3 | Ṁ182 | |
4 | Ṁ158 | |
5 | Ṁ126 |
Sort by:
You currently have a loan of M$88.
nice, so even if this market gets abandoned I will get my funds back
"getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query" would be great, but my expected rate of this happening is at 0.001%
Doing it by paying actual highly qualified humans is not working well. Doing it automatically? Hahaha.
The easiest way to achieve this goal is to shut down Google Search and Quora.
Related questions
🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024?
34% chance
Will I write a satirical tweet in the next 6 months on the “trust the science” discourse, that gets more than 150 likes?
73% chance
By 2028, will I think Conjecture has been net-good for the world?
69% chance
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
49% chance
Will a new study on ATCOR be published that my econ friends think is of good quality, before 2025?
49% chance
Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2025?
20% chance
What percentage of the reports/papers Rethink Priorities produces in 2024 will get published in peer-reviewed journals?
18% chance
Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles within two years?
71% chance
Will scientific journal publisher MDPI have a better reputation by 2027?
33% chance
Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2024?
11% chance