Will I update towards a more positive view of auto-scientific-literature-review site Consensus in the next six months?

105Ṁ4290

resolved Jul 14

Resolved

ALL

Consensus is a website/app that has a goal of "mak[ing] getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query". They kindly offered me the chance to test an early version of their product last summer - the results were http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_masks.png and http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/consensus_ketamine.png , which I was not very impressed by. Since then, their team has continued to be very nice to me, answer my questions, and put another eight months or so of work into their product, which I have not yet checked. They recently launched a public beta, which you can see at https://consensus.app/blog/introducing-consensus/ . My current guess is that automating literature review doesn't work (even hiring PhDs to do literature review barely works!) and that this project will operate as a slightly higher-tech Google Scholar that's not worth sacrificing the familiarity and simplicity of the latter. This market will resolve as positive if, on 8/19/2022, my opinion of Consensus is significantly more positive than the above. I would certainly resolve it positive if I routinely used Consensus instead of Google or Google Scholar when investigating (some subset of) scientific questions, or if I heard buzz from researchers that they did this and really appreciated it. I expect that the Consensus team will continue to let me assess their product free of charge, but if not, the amount I will pay for a subscription in order to resolve this prediction market will be a function of what the prediction market predicts - higher probability of me liking it = more money I will spend in order to test this. This could produce weird behavior, but I think it's more likely they'll continue to let me test it for free and this won't come up.

Science

Please Resolve

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ237
2		Ṁ220
3		Ṁ182
4		Ṁ158
5		Ṁ126

People are also trading

Will "Overcoming Bias Anthology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

13% chance

Will "Attitudes about Applied Rationality" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

43% chance

Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

18% chance

Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

34% chance

Will "Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

24% chance

Will "In favour of exploring nagging doubts about x..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

17% chance

Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

12% chance

Will "Four visions of Transformative AI success" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

14% chance

Will "A bird's eye view of ARC's research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

12% chance

Will "EIS XIII: Reflections on Anthropic’s SAE Rese..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sort by:

predictedNO

I just noticed that this market closed in August but you haven't resolved it yet.

predictedNO

You currently have a loan of M$84.

(I want to check is loan/divident active also on limbo markets, sorry for a public comment but there are no private ones)

predictedNO

You currently have a loan of M$88.

nice, so even if this market gets abandoned I will get my funds back

"getting information from rigorous, evidence-based sources as easy and consumable as a Google Search or a Quora query" would be great, but my expected rate of this happening is at 0.001% Doing it by paying actual highly qualified humans is not working well. Doing it automatically? Hahaha. The easiest way to achieve this goal is to shut down Google Search and Quora.

nope lol just looks cooler than scott seems to think, and I think it's likely he will become less irrational at some point. if he doesn't, oh well, I lose some mana and found a cool site, thanks for the link

A few traders buying big yes positions... would say 70% they're affiliated with Consensus/willing to part with some mana to get Scott to look more closely at their site.