Will we see a spike of total mana bet in the first week of June?
11
100
170
resolved Jun 3
Resolved
YES

The market is refferencing this graph in the Manifold stats page:

For the purposes of this market, I will consider the average daily mana bet from 5th of May till 31st of May (read from the graph you can see above). This market will resolve YES if on any day from 1st June till 8th of June the Total mana bet is 200% of the average from 5th of May till 31st of May.

The inspiration for this market comes from the Mana payouts that will theoretically happen somewhere in the beginning of June, related to the League season ending. I calculate the total Mana paid out as follows :

This market resolves independent of whether the League mana is paid out or not or if someone intentionally manipulates the market somehow. This market resolves N/A if the stats page stops working (API doesn't count).

Current average from 5th of May till 23rd of May is 8307.63 dMana.

UPDATE: The average from 5th of May till 31st of May is 8915.15 dMana. If on any day from 1st of June till 8th of June the total amount of Mana bet is 17830.3 dMana, this market resolves Yes.

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

This market can resolve YES, I think.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@Lorxus Yep. Any idea what was the reason for this ammount of activity?

predicted YES

@ScipioFabius It seems like since march, every first day of the month marks a big jump in activity. Maybe it is all the monthly markets resolving, which brings people to bet on others while they are here?

predicted YES

@bingeworthy that'd be my guess too

predicted YES

@bingeworthy That would make sense, though that doesn't really correlate with the daily active users graph. I purposefully avoided including the beginning of May because I think that spike was due to the WvM market instead.