Will i score this job quickly?
13
141
250
resolved Jun 2
Resolved
NO

I found this notice by a local recruiting company:

===begin of job description

We are urgently hiring a Tire Fitter in $mycity

Your responsibilities:

  • Fitting of tires and wheels

  • Unmounting and balancing

  • Assisting in service and maintainance work

  • Storing of tires

Your qualifications:

  • Physical resilience

  • Structured and independent way of working

  • Experience in tire fitting is an advantage

  • High degree of customer orientation

  • Basic communication in german

===end of job description

No one was at the office where the notice was posted, so I wrote a kind of application to the e-mail address that was given on the note.

===begin of Letter

Hello Mrs. $Recruiter,

I have read the notice for the above-mentioned temporary position and would like to introduce myself.

My name is $Schwabilismus. I am $age years old, a student on vacation and I live in $mycity. I am looking for a

short-term employment to earn money, which corresponds to my abilities.

Since I have a completed vocational training as a motor vehicle mechatronics technician, find myself in good physical condition and have good communication skills in German and English with a strong technical understanding, a nice nature and good manners I think I am a good candidate for this job.

I have a vehicle and am available immediately. If you are interested feel free to contact me by email, phone $phonenumber, messenger (Whatsapp, Telegram, Signal) or SMS.

I would be very happy to hear from you,

with kind regards

$Schwabilismus

===end of application

All I wrote is true. I am more than up to the task. The only problem is: I am not looking for something permanent. Just a gig for a month or two to help pay the bills until I've found a job as an engineer in my field. The note says that the position has the "Option to be taken in permanently by the employer", so they are interested in someone who will stay for longer and they might be willing to cut back in the qualifications somewhat.

I am also actively searching for internships/jobs in my field of study. I have several applications out and received some feedback on some of them. But the process there seems to be very slow (companies take weeks to answer) and I have bills to pay.

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve in exactly two weeks from now. Will resolve yes if i worked at least one day on that position or if i had a very promising interview.

Will resolve no if the recruiting company fails to answer, if my application is declined, the position isn't available anymore or the interview went badly in my opinion.

If an interview is scheduled for later the market will resolve n/a.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ71
2Ṁ52
3Ṁ38
4Ṁ21
5Ṁ20
Sort by:
predicted YES

Update:

I had a meeting with the recruiter and although we had a nice chat the position isn't available anymore. Turns out tire fitting is a seasonal job since most of the demand occurs in autumn and spring when people switch to winter/summer-tires. I feel a bit dumb bc i should have known that.

But the recruiting company turns out to have some companies in their network that make cardiovascular implants I.e. Stents.

Medical devices and microstructure tech ology were part of my curriculum so I might have a chance scoring something there.

But I think the resolution criteria are met. Market will most likely resolves as "no". I am going to wait in June 2nd.

predicted NO

@Schwabilismus Ugh, it sucks that my base rate assumption about a random job not being available turned out to be kind of right. Though I had no idea about season-ness of the job, just went off of the assumption that it typically takes people several applications to find a position.

I hope they'll help you find something!

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@42irrationalist Thanks for the empathic comment but after this talk I actually feel more positive about my situation. Even though I didn't get that particular job right away the recruiter left me with a confidence that there is stuff out there I can do.

Also: congrats on beating base-rate-neglect!

predicted YES

Update:

Called the recruiters and I now have a date on 24.05.

predicted NO

@Schwabilismus Good luck! I'll be happy if you win my mana!

bought Ṁ25 of YES

F*** that, my chances are better than 33%.

predicted NO

@Schwabilismus

I actually wish you best of luck! I'd be happy to lose mana here.

It's just, like, the base rate of even job responses seems lower than 50% to me.

predicted YES

@42irrationalist yeah, I acutely aware. I am biased BC emotional involvement but isn't responding quickly the job of a recruiting company?

I really hope they are quicker than the big-pharma-companies I am applying to for internships etc.

predicted NO

@Schwabilismus idk, I always assume that when you apply for a job you might never hear from the company back and it might take them like a week to respond

predicted YES

@42irrationalist I should propably try to call them or visit their office (about 20minutes walk from my door). They put in way more effort when they saw the other person or at least heard their voice.

predicted NO

@Schwabilismus that's probably a good idea, could expedite the process and tip the scales in your favour

predicted YES

@42irrationalist Market manipulation FTW!

predicted NO

@Schwabilismus predictions market are also motivation markets ;)