Surprisingly Julian Assange is free!
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/us/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal.html
Is that good news? I hope so.
Some of the more cynical voices say that he will be killed/disappeared as soon as the world stops watching too closely.
Will this happen?
Will Assange survive until years end?
Resolution criteria:
Resolves "NO" if Assange dies of --any-- causes soon.
Resolves "NO" if Assange disappears, as reported by mainstream Media or his family
Resolves "YES" if Assange is alive by years end.
Resolves "EPIC YES" If Assange is alive, free and well by years end and doesn't serve a prison sentence.
Market conditions:
I will trade in this market.
Epistemic status:
Very uninformed. I haven't watched closely how the Assange situation developed over the last few hundred years of his unofficial imprisonment.
Market motivation:
I made this market to register a cynical -but still uninformed- prediction.
This is more of a reminder to myself. Maybe I'll post some news if I find some
Seems to be doing just fine.