Resolves EDT. A storm that forms in September counts as long as it is a major anytime in October. Closes Sep 30
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ761 | |
| 2 | Ṁ280 | |
| 3 | Ṁ138 | |
| 4 | Ṁ84 | |
| 5 | Ṁ63 |
People are also trading
Looking into the far end of the EPS forecast, ~ 15% of EPS members show the wave in the East tropics becoming a cat. 3 (~25% a cat. 2), but this is far out and right now there is only 50% of genesis in 7 days per NHC's TWO. This is not enough for me to change my mind, but I'm not going to bet it down to 60% again when there are plenty more days to update still...
@parhizj Models have consistently overestimated the intensity of storms in that area all season, I'm expecting something closer to Gordon than a major hurricane from that system
EPS/00Z has backed off quite a bit from the same wave/potential disturbance strengthening so much ... now only ~ 2% strengthening to cat.3 by either pressure (961 cutoff) or VMax (a single member)
Climatologically (1991-2023) from my notebook for NATL in October, I get 47% for a cat3+ for October, 57% for a cat2+, 72% for a cat1+. I don't have a model for this, but here is some present charts and stats:
Presently the current SST anomaly is +1 to +1.2 for the MDR, Caribbean and the GoM (cyclonicwx.com)
CFS forecasts that Atlantic MDR will cool slightly temporarily before or as October starts (seems that a few waves are forecast to cross then as well, and there looks to be some small chances of a disturbance from one of these waves taking time to strengthen and then become a hurricane right at the start of October). October SSTs look to stay roughly the same, with some slight cooling further North (26 deg boundary drops further South): (https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/)
Still looks to be above normal SST temps though for October though less extreme than September:
ECMWF extended range forecasts for ACE show to be above average for the first three weeks of the month (roughly 1.3, 1.5, 1.5 times for the first three weeks respectively).
Given this I expect the probability for TC genesis to be above the climatological mean, and the same for the chances for a hurricane. On the other hand, we have had a near-normal ACE and number of storms... Vertical instability for the Tropics are still below normal for the moment ... so that may continue to balance it out unless it increases as October temps cool and this changes?
In short I don't have a model for this, and I'm going to guess we have somewhere in between the normal and above normal scenario for October and guess that what the chances are for a cat 3 are somewhere between the chances for a cat 1 to a cat 3 (about 60%)
Includes GoM? Also, might be good to put a note in description that this closes at the beginning of October.
@SaviorofPlant Apparently rarely any storms in October.. (2 storms in last 67 years?)…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone#Climatological_statistics