Will Kamala Harris's "debate bump" be completely gone by October 9?
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This market resolves YES if the Trump/Harris national polling averages are equally favorable or more favorable for Trump on October 9 than they were on September 9. I will compare the averaged FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin (Harris - Trump) margins for each date to resolve this question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@SaviorofPlant Resolves as NO.
September 9: +2.3% Harris (Silver Bulletin) and +2.6% Harris (FiveThirtyEight)
October 9: +3.5% Harris (Silver Bulletin) and +2.5% Harris (FiveThirtyEight)
Average is more favorable for Harris on October 9.
@ChaosIsALadder It's 3.2% on Silver Bulletin for October 9, but still resolves NO. Interesting that using just FiveThirtyEight would have caused this to resolve YES