Will any poll by a two star or higher pollster on FiveThirtyEight show Harris winning Texas before September 10?
🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election️ Politics🇺🇸 US PoliticsKamala HarrisDemocratic Party
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resolved Sep 10
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NO

Can be RV, LV, two-way or with RFK Jr. included. Any poll by a pollster with a one star rating on FiveThirtyEight does not count.

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Not looking great, the first qualifying poll was Trump +5. Assuming that's near the average, she'd need a pretty crazy convention bump to come out ahead in Texas

What counts as winning?

Harris polls the highest of all named candidates, and Trump is included as one of them (one of those stupid rfk jr campaign polls with him against harris wouldn't count)

In the 2020 cycle, FiveThirtyEight has a total of two polls in the August 10 - September 10 time frame that meet the two star rating criteria. One of the two had BIden leading +3, at a time when Biden had a +9 lead nationally.

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