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@SaviorofPlant This can resolve now. Ragasa became a Violent Typhoon with the 22/00Z advisory from JMA (110 kt winds):

================================================================

2025-09-22_00_47_24

================================================================

WTPQ51 RJTD 220000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 220000UTC 19.4N 123.0E GOOD

MOVE W 12KT

PRES 905HPA

MXWD 110KT

GUST 155KT

50KT 120NM

30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST

FORECAST

12HF 221200UTC 19.6N 120.6E 25NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 900HPA

MXWD 115KT

GUST 165KT

24HF 230000UTC 20.1N 118.3E 35NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 905HPA

MXWD 110KT

GUST 155KT

48HF 240000UTC 21.1N 113.7E 55NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

72HF 250000UTC 21.1N 108.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 12KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

96HF 260000UTC 20.7N 102.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Update: TY Ragasa is at 90 kt with the latest 21/03Z advisory.

It became a "Very Strong TY" with the 21/00Z advisory:

2025-09-21_00_48_08

================================================================

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 210000UTC 17.9N 127.0E GOOD

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 085KT

GUST 120KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST

~~~~~~

This 85 kt max wind estimate at 20/00Z was well under JTWC's estimate even accounting for conversion (i.e. JTWC would be ~112 kt using K=0.93, so this is a difference of more than 25 kt):

================================================================

2025-09-21_01_32_03

================================================================

WTPN32 PGTW 210300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 011//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 011

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

210000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 127.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

Upgraded to STS as of 19/15Z:

================================================================

2025-09-19_15_44_05

================================================================

WTJP32 RJTD 191500

WARNING 191500.

WARNING VALID 201500.

TYPHOON WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM

992 HPA

AT 16.5N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 17.7N 128.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Edit:

JMA upgraded officially to Typhoon status for the 20/06Z advisory:

================================================================

2025-09-20_06_47_06

================================================================

WTPQ51 RJTD 200600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 200600UTC 16.9N 129.0E GOOD

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

50KT 40NM

30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 210600UTC 18.6N 126.5E 42NM 70%

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

48HF 220600UTC 19.7N 122.4E 55NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

72HF 230600UTC 20.9N 117.4E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

GUST 135KT

96HF 240600UTC 21.5N 112.9E 100NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 085KT

GUST 120KT

120HF 250600UTC 20.7N 108.3E 120NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT =

~

As of 20/03Z JMA still has not officially upgraded it to Typhoon status (JTWC has). Somewhat clouded eye has been visible for hours on vis. imagery.

I suppose they are being conservative given that it struggled to hold its previous robust appearance after convection dried up a bit when the wind field was tightening up earlier to form an eye. (some dry air seemed to intrude in this process based on the outflow patterns)

"Lack of firmness" is given as a comment in their prognostic reasoning for 20/00Z:

WTPQ31 RJTD 200000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 2518 RAGASA (2518)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

STS RAGASA IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 129.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS

IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.

HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO

MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE

CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED

MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE

CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC

OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND

THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE

SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN

UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL

HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE

PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK

FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP

MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS

ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY

UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE

TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA

INCLUDING GSM.

Based on JTWC bdeck winds though it still looks on track for 120 kt...

Of note is that some of the global ensembles show more spread to the north as it passes through Luzon Strait.

However given its struggles a bit today, I think some small reduction in probability is in order.

The non AI-RI index remains very bullish, but the AI-RI indicators have shrunk a bit for 00Z:

The peak vmax reached by the mean track for the (12Z/18Z mix of) ensembles have also decreased a few kt (after subsetting based on a recent JTWC fix), indicating a slight downward shift in the forecast.

This storm is forecast to come very close to the Chinese coast

Quick summary:

Per 00Z ensembles peak should be around 22nd/00Z or so (+- 6 hours).

Environment looks very favorable (some dry air to the north that doesn't seem like it will hassle it).

Deep convection is robust showing ragged edges already right now with large cool tops, with temps below -90C.

Uncertainty in track is noted by mets in the track from weak steering for the next day or so..

The mean of the ensembles I've looked at (18/12Z and 19/00Z) (GEFS/GEPS/EPS/FNMOC/Google) have been 92-95 kt from the last couple runs . This includes obviously some models that are going to be way under and some possibly over (the Google mean& median tracks reach 125 kt.

Along google 00Z mean track:

ensemble_agg_mean:

storm_ace (10^-4): 20.3

storm_vmax10m (kts): 125.4

storm_min_mslp (hPa): 928.7

sst_mean (C): 29.8

sst_min (C): 28.8

sst_max (C): 30.3

ohc_mean (kJ * cm^-2): 119.8

ohc_max (kJ * cm^-2): 184.6

iso26C_mean (m): 106.2

iso26C_min (m): 40.4

iso26C_max (m): 140.9

The mean of the 00Z ensembles takes it right through the middle of Luzon straight, while Google/00Z's mean track takes it a bit further south and closer to Luzon.

Based on latest raw ADT values looks like it is strengthening well past current advisory intensity...

2025SEP20 081000  4.2  978.1  69.8  4.2 5.1 6.0  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  -4.11 -70.23  EYE     16 IR  10.3   16.84 -128.88  FCST     HIM-9 24.0 
2025SEP20 083000  4.4  974.8  74.6  4.4 5.1 6.2  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  -2.26 -72.28  EYE     20 IR  10.3   16.86 -128.85  FCST     HIM-9 24.0 
2025SEP20 090000  4.6  971.2  79.6  4.6 5.1 6.3  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  11.41 -71.47  EYE     20 IR  10.3   16.90 -128.80  FCST     HIM-9 24.1 
2025SEP20 093000  4.8  967.3  84.8  4.8 5.1 6.5  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF   9.91 -73.18  EYE     17 IR  10.3   16.94 -128.75  FCST     HIM-9 24.1 
2025SEP20 101000  5.1  961.3  92.4  5.1 5.1 6.2  1.7T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  -2.49 -71.63  EYE    -99 IR  66.2   17.17 -128.91  ARCHER   HIM-9 24.2 

As of 06Z it has increased 30 kt in last 24 hours..

(40-> 70 kt)

The previous RI that has been verified shows the AI in RIPA probabilities have been too low probability wise so far ..

Based on that I'm leaning towards a higher peak intensity than the AI-RI suggests given its current strengthening trend... The RI above actually suggest much higher chances than even the 125kt currently forecast

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 19.6N 122.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---

125 kt is the peak intensity for what I get from subsetting on the Google-deep mind model for its 00Z ensemble.

It should be noted that JMA's forecast is quite a bit lower (100kt) even applying a standard converion factor of K=0.93 to JTWC's forecast (which would yield 116 kt).

Edit: This market closes in about 3 hours, so there will be no further late model guidance that I can get from the ensembles before closes.

Google 06Z was a slight downgrade since yesterday by about 5 kt (previously about 125 kt mean).

Considering a 1-min VMax threshold of ~ 112.9 kt using the above conversion, there is a period of about 20 hours >= 113 kt winds in the mean track for 06Z, where there should be ample opportunity if it verifies to classify it as a violent typhoon (>=105 kt in 10-min wind speeds).

2509211000 ( +18.53, +125.49) 113.6

...

2509211800 ( +19.08, +124.08) 119.8

...

2509220600 ( +19.37, +121.50) 113.3

~

Even though it might be a bit close, I have higher confidence than my last update a few hours ago, after per the latest ADT data from CIMSS Google seems to have correctly forecast the rapid increase in strength (of at least 20 kt) in the 6 hour period from 06Z to 12Z:

CIMSS SATCON showing this:

~~

After I wrote this the JMA 12Z update came in..

For reference here are the last two advisories and warnings (12Z) from JMA (showing 105 kt):

2025-09-20_12_42_41

================================================================

WTJP22 RJTD 201200

WARNING 201200.

WARNING VALID 211200.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 2518 RAGASA (2518) 955 HPA

AT 17.3N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 18.9N 125.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.9N 121.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.1N 116.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 21.1N 111.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 20.6N 107.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

================================================================

2025-09-20_12_42_41

================================================================

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 2518 RAGASA (2518)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 201200UTC 17.3N 128.6E GOOD

MOVE NW 06KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 211200UTC 18.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

GUST 130KT

48HF 221200UTC 19.9N 121.0E 55NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 915HPA

MXWD 105KT

GUST 150KT

72HF 231200UTC 21.1N 116.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

96HF 241200UTC 21.1N 111.7E 100NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

GUST 115KT

120HF 251200UTC 20.6N 107.1E 120NM 70%

MOVE W 11KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 060KT

GUST 085KT =

~

The above JMA track is a bit further north than the mean google track at the moment (~20 NM) and when it passes through the Luzon straight the JMA track is 20-30 NM north as well.

They do appear closest near 21/18Z (8 NM), but afterwards interpolating the JMA track shows a very slightly more northerly track heading: Interpolating JMA it has a heading of about 282 degrees where as google mean has a heading of about 277 degrees.

JTWC 20/15Z advisory has it currently at 100 kt winds, with a forecast peaking now at 135 kt in 48 hours. Based on this I've increased my bet again (Edit);

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

221200Z --- 20.0N 121.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS

Market closes in just under an hour...