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@SaviorofPlant

This can resolve now:

WTPQ50 RJTD 010000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 2418 KRATHON (2418)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010000UTC 20.6N 119.6E GOOD

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 915HPA

MXWD 105KT

GUST 150KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 270NM

Lost some mana on this one... but at least I bet on the right side if only marginally...

Increased to 100 kt

WTPQ50 RJTD 301800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 2418 KRATHON (2418)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 301800UTC 20.5N 120.0E GOOD

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

GUST 140KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 270NM

Upgraded to 95 kt... from interpreting RJTD looks like they expect it to peak around 100 kt... (as they predict it will continue developing for the next 24 hours and for that forecast point have it at 100 kt).

WTJP81 RJTD 300000

EGC:2:2:31:11:11:00

SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING / ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF METAREA

XI.

WARNING 300000.

WARNING VALID 010000.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 2418 KRATHON (2418) 935 HPA

AT 20.2N 122.1E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 20.7N 119.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 21.7N 119.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 24.2N 121.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 25.7N 123.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 27.4N 123.0E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

RJTD 00Z Prognostic reasoning:

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY

UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL

OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS

LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE

INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A

CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=

This roughly matches some of the models for 18Z (trend-wise)

Now at 90kt ...

WTJP91 RJTD 292100

EGC:2:2:31:11:11:00

SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING / ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF METAREA

XI.

WARNING 292100.

WARNING VALID 302100.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 2418 KRATHON (2418) 940 HPA

AT 20.0N 122.2E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 20.7N 120.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Now at 85 kt ..

WTJP81 RJTD 291800

EGC:2:2:31:11:11:00

SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING / ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF METAREA

XI.

WARNING 291800.

WARNING VALID 301800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 2418 KRATHON (2418) 950 HPA

AT 19.9N 122.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.6N 120.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.7N 119.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 23.7N 121.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

After looking at a lot of models.. looks like it might go west, then slowly go north into southern Taiwan after pausing a bit...

Now a typhoon:

WTJP91 RJTD 290300

EGC:2:2:31:11:11:00

SECURITE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING / ISSUED FOR THE NORTH OF EQUATOR OF METAREA

XI.

WARNING 290300.

WARNING VALID 300300.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 2418 KRATHON (2418) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975

HPA

AT 19.0N 124.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

This is my first Western Pacific intensity market. For typhoons, the scale is a little different - it is measured in terms of 10 minute sustained winds instead of 1 minute as for hurricanes.

This storm is a possible threat to Taiwan.

@SaviorofPlant Resolution source?

JMA has 21Z at 984 hPa. this is a bit higher (perhaps about +5 hPa ) than most of EPS 12Z members...

Given there is a large cliff in the probabilities depending on the wind speed you threshold on (roughly 105 you get 60%, 110 you get 40%, 115 kt you get 20% of the members) as the max speed of the storm is forecast around 100-105 kt presently (JMA, JTWC), this small error is going to make a large difference (along with whatever resolution source is chosen).

@parhizj JMA