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https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-be-the-minimum-central-pr?play=true

Follow up market that doesn't close early

For bettors, not much time left to close.

Below, zoom of the SST temps (note it is Night and Day combined from (scale is narrow to show fine differences): https://coastwatch.noaa.gov/pub/socd2/coastwatch/sst_blended/sst5km/daynight/ghrsst_ospo/2024/)

With the regional model tracks

Per https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml, there should be 3 planes doing recon at the model time where HAFS-A is showing a cat 5:

Not mentioned in the NHC discussion is the drop in the extreme RI probabilities from SHIPS (DTOPS doesn't even report values) as I suppose the intensification has been steady and even (~40 kt for Oct 6 previously, and now again forecast for Oct. 7).

5 PM relevant discussion:

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid 
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within 
light shear and over very deep warm waters.  Intensity guidance is 
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with 
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in 
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two.  The NHC forecast is 
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus 
model and still could be too low.  Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and 
some weakening is anticipated.  However, the regional hurricane 
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are 
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very 
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing 
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards 
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the 
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this 
system and listen to local officials.

DTOPS says 100% it becoming at least a cat 4....

This market gave me an idea:

/jks/-2024-ncaaf-will-memphis-and-south

Will be Hurricane Milton soon.

@ScottSupak You called it.

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Milton erupts into Category 1 hurricane as Southeast reels from Helene aftermath

https://ground.news/article/ron-desantis-urges-floridians-to-prepare-for-a-major-hurricane-again-and-hold-steady_07403f?utm_source=mobile-app&utm_medium=newsroom-share 

Milton erupts into Category 1 hurricane as Southeast reels from Helene aftermath

Tropical Storm Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 1 hurricane Sunday with its path aimed at Florida, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene made lan

NHC now forecasting a major hurricane:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH