What will be the minimum central pressure of Hurricane Milton?
18
200Ṁ3566
resolved Oct 12
100%99.0%
895 - 900 mb
0.0%
900 - 905 mb
0.0%
905 - 910 mb
0.0%
910 - 915 mb
0.0%
915 - 920 mb
0.0%
920 - 925 mb
0.0%
925 - 930 mb
0.0%
930 - 935 mb
0.0%
935 - 940 mb
0.1%
890 - 895 mb
0.1%
885 - 890 mb
0.3%
880 - 885 mb
0.2%
875 - 880 mb
0.2%Other

Live trading version. If the central pressure is exactly on a boundary (ex. 935.0 mb), it resolves 50% to each option.

Climate
Natural Disasters
Hurricanes
Extreme Weather
2024 Hurricane Season
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ340
2Ṁ99
3Ṁ50
4Ṁ34
5Ṁ19
Sort by:
bought Ṁ35 YES

Per the latest recon the last 3 model runs of HAFS-A/HAFS-B have been initialized too weak... now in the 902-905 hPa range for ~21Z and those models were initialized ~20-30 hPa higher for the same time...

This HAFS-B from 07/12Z run has been remarkably accurate pressure and intensity wise as I keep going back to it... I have only checked a few data points though...

After 36 hours its abs. track error is only ~ 30 n. miles (0.5 degrees west of measured) near 21Z

NHC (this is very good): edit: Speed is off a bit though. (This i the same run that models a 884 hPa minimum tomorrow at 09Z that I posted below...).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  87.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
7:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8Location: 23.0°N 86.9°WMoving: ENE at 10 mphMin pressure: 902 mb

Max sustained: 165 mph

bought Ṁ25 YES
       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA42        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 71
       A. 09/0000Z                   A. 09/0530Z,0830Z,1130Z
       B. NOAA2 1714A MILTON         B. AFXXX 1814A MILTON
       C. 08/2000Z                   C. 09/0400Z
       D. 23.6N 86.4W                D. 24.7N 85.4W
       E. 08/2100Z TO 09/0300Z       E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR         G. FIX
       H. WRA ACTIVATION             H. WRA ACTIVATION

       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 43
       A. 09/1200Z
       B. NOAA3 1914A MILTON
       C. 09/0800Z
       D. 25.5N 84.7W
       E. 09/0900Z TO 09/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
       H. WRA ACTIVATION

Should have a couple flights in the air, and at least one fix near this model prediction time...

This HAFS-B 12Z run from earlier nailed the minimum pressure for 00Z (896.6 mb), albeit a bit early..

(899 - 24/10 = 896.6 mb)

bought Ṁ7 NO

Is it only as reported by NHC or can other measurements not mentioned be used?

@ChristopherRandles Resolves to whatever NHC reports the pressure as in advisories

@SaviorofPlant For clarity, do advisories include update statements?

@ChristopherRandles Yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

Nice, ty.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy