What will be the maximum intensity of Tropical Storm Fernand?
5
Ṁ1kṀ7.2kresolved Aug 29
100%50%
Strong tropical storm (50 - 60 kt)
42%
Weak tropical storm (35 - 45 kt)
4%
Category 1 hurricane
1.6%
Category 2 hurricane
1.0%
Category 3 hurricane
0.9%
Category 4 hurricane
0.9%
Category 5 hurricane
Resolves according to NHC advisories
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NHC is still predicting a tiny bit more strengthening to make it to 50 kt in the latest advisory, but it really doesn't look like it can even pull that much off in its adverse environment. Google's model does have roughly half of its members with enough strengthening to reach near 50 kt until 18Z anway.
@SaviorofPlant Well, it reached 50 kt.
A large burst of persistent convection remains in the southeastern
quadrant of Fernand, with 1-minute GOES-19 visible imagery
suggesting that the low-level center is positioned on the
northwestern edge of the burst. Scatterometer data indicate that
the maximum winds have increased to about 50 kt, so that will be
the initial intensity.Edit: --- (seems a further revision to the data removed that oddity when it was collapsing ... not sure if it was a retrieval error or whether it was from the modest line of convection)