What will be the change in Harris's margin against Trump in the week after she picks her VP?
6
αΉ100αΉ44resolved Aug 15
50%23%
Gains between 1 and 2 points
50%30%
Gains between 0.5 and 1 points
5%
Gains 2 points or more
19%
Gains between 0 and 0.5 points
8%
Loses between 0 and 0.5 points
5%
Loses between 0.5 and 1 points
5%
Loses between 1 and 2 points
5%
Loses 2 or more points
I will average the two-way margins in FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin between Harris and Trump, and resolve to the difference between the margin one week after she chooses her VP and the day before.
For example, if she picks her VP August 7, resolves to (August 14 margin) - (August 6 margin).
If the average is right between two buckets, resolves 50% each.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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