What areas of the ocean will have tropical activity before the start of hurricane season?
4
1kṀ2185May 1
39%
A tropical depression will form in the Atlantic
32%
A tropical storm will form in the Atlantic
11%
A hurricane will form in the Atlantic
20%
A tropical depression will form in the Eastern Pacific
14%
A tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific
4%
A hurricane will form in the Eastern Pacific
Resolves YES if Wikipedia shows a system of the indicated strength or higher existed in 2025 before May 15 (for Eastern Pacific) or June 1 (for the Atlantic). The storm must attain that intensity before the season officially starts.
I am not adding the WPAC or NIO as these basins do not seem to have an official start or end date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Atlantic_hurricanes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Pacific_hurricanes
Can probably paste these lists into a reasoning LLM and ask it to count them to get a decent prior on the probability, but I think these have become more common recently
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