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MANIFOLD
What areas of the ocean will have tropical activity before the start of hurricane season?
8
Ṁ1kṀ8.5k
resolved Jun 3
Resolved
NO
A tropical depression will form in the Atlantic
Resolved
NO
A tropical storm will form in the Atlantic
Resolved
NO
A hurricane will form in the Atlantic
Resolved
NO
A tropical depression will form in the Eastern Pacific
Resolved
NO
A tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific
Resolved
NO
A hurricane will form in the Eastern Pacific

Resolves YES if Wikipedia shows a system of the indicated strength or higher existed in 2025 before May 15 (for Eastern Pacific) or June 1 (for the Atlantic). The storm must attain that intensity before the season officially starts.

I am not adding the WPAC or NIO as these basins do not seem to have an official start or end date.

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2025 Hurricane Season
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@SaviorofPlant can resolve now

reposted

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Atlantic_hurricanes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_off-season_Pacific_hurricanes

Can probably paste these lists into a reasoning LLM and ask it to count them to get a decent prior on the probability, but I think these have become more common recently

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