Trump pauses or cancels tariffs again in July?
19
1kṀ1011
Jul 31
74%
chance

Resolves YES if Trump announces another pause on a majority of new tariffs set to be imposed (or unpaused) in July 2025, or announces that the tariffs will not be imposed. If tariffs are paused in June and then the pause is extended in July, also resolves YES.

Resolves NO if an announcement or multiple announcements together delaying a majority of tariffs are made in June, August, or any other month, or if tariffs are not paused.

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"This announcement" and NO if it's made in June suggests that you're expecting just one such announcement. This is obviously a wrong assumption. Someone with a more realistic view can believe that there will be an announcement in July but still buy NO because they would still expect you to resolve this after a June announcement.

@MaxA hm, I did not consider the case of many announcements, which together delay a majority of tariffs but alone do not

In this case we can resolve YES if the cumulative announcements in July meet the resolution criteria. I will update the description to better handle this scenario

bought Ṁ50 YES

surprised this market doesn't exist already

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