How active will the 2026 Pacific hurricane season be?
2
Ṁ1kṀ2.5kNov 30
0.9%
Record low (22.3 < ACE)
14%
Below normal (22 < ACE < 80)
20%
Near-normal (80 < ACE < 115)
49%
Above normal (115 < ACE < 318.1)
16%
Record high (ACE > 318.1)
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy. This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Pacific hurricane seasons by ACE. (Western Pacific storms are not called hurricanes and do not count for the purpose of this market.)
If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia. If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
The last ten years had the following activity:
Below normal: 2020
Near normal: 2017, 2019, 2021, 2024
Above normal: 2016, 2022, 2023, 2025
Record high: 2018
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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