Background
Tropical Storm Norma, currently south of Mexico, has been rapidly strengthening and is forecast to reach not just hurricane strength, but possibly becoming another major hurricane following Lidia which at its peak was a Category 4 hurricane.
Will Norma become a major hurricane during its tropical lifetime?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Norma reaches Category 3 major hurricane strength, before dissipation, extratropical transition, or merger with non-tropical fronts, according to the NHC.
Resolves NO if the conditions for YES are not satisfied before dissipation, extratropical transition, or merger with non-tropical fronts.
Will resolve and adjudicate based on NHC advisories, and I will not bet on this market.
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This market has been resolved to YES per NHC advisory. Norma has intensified at such a swift pace, barely half a day after the resolution of the hurricane market - now we shall see if it will be able to fend off the increasingly hostile environmental factors as it moves north towards Baja California.
Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
Norma has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane. Overnight, a 20 n mi wide eye emerged on infrared satellite imagery, with cold cloud tops wrapping around the eyewall and some evidence of warming
within the eye. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T5.5/102 kt, and the initial intensity was raised to 105 kt, slightly above the estimates given the improved structural organization.
...
INIT 19/0900Z 16.7N 107.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 18.6N 108.5W 100 KT 115 MPHNorma has RI'd into a major hurricane per the latest advisory (and poised to become even stronger still to a Cat 4 hurricane later!), thus the condition for YES has been satisfied. I will be resolving this market as YES in an hour if there is no objection.
Edit: Newest advisory (21Z) has it as a major hurricane, but only at one forecast advisory time, so I am assigning it 56%.