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24% chance. U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) has announced that he will run as an independent. This is a market on whether an average of Real Clear Politics (RCP) polls, taken within 20 days of the 2024 US Presidential election, will indicate that the Democratic candidate polls comparatively worse than the 2nd leading candidate when RFK Jr. is included in a poll vs. when he is not included. (Thus, if the Democrat's polling average is 1% higher than the 2nd leading candidate's polling average without RFK Jr. in the poll, but 1% worse with RFK Jr. in the poll, then this market would resolve "Yes".) If no pollsters included by RCP conduct polls with and without RFK Jr., for example because RFK Jr. later decides to drop out of the race, then this market will resolve "No". Whether additional minor candidates are included in the poll with RFK Jr., is not material. If RCP is not available, then we will use 538.