Will the coal mine market get at least 200 traders if it does not receive Ṁ5,000 in subsidies?
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Ṁ22k
Nov 4
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@Sailfish Was this 200 traders by close of this market? Ever? Should this market either resolve or be reopened?

predictedNO

@EvanDaniel 1: Ever 2: No, it the market was created to inform a decision which has since passed, it doesn't make sense to reopen it. I might just N/A all these, I don't know.

@Sailfish It would seem to me that the ones for the branch that was not made should be N/A, but that the ones for the branch that was should be open so that people can trade them and be resolved according to what happens so that people can be rewarded for their accurate predictions.

@Sailfish I suppose leaving it closed until resolution makes it less susceptible to manipulation, so there's definitely an argument for that.

predictedNO

@EvanDaniel In the case where you want to inform a decision, it makes sense to close the markets after the decision is made. The profits will go to the people who made a correct decision years in advance, not the people who made a correct judgement of how many traders a market will ultimately receive days before it closes.

@Sailfish Ah, see, that would strongly discourage me from participating early (before the decision gets made). If I'm right, then I'd expect the market to move soon, and I'd like to be able to take my profit and exit after the answer is clear but before it becomes certain. More than happy to trade that part off to people willing to wait for it to actually happen, at least under many circumstances.

predictedNO

Wait, can this resolve? Or do we all have to wait until 2033 for the other market to close?

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