Will a coal mine be bought and closed by climate activists by 2033?

Question

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/02/buy-or-rent-coal-the-coasean-climate-change-policy.html

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/05/buying-a-coal-mine-gets-easier.html

Will it work? This market will resolve "Yes" once a coal mine is bought and production is stopped. The mine can be reopened later, and it does not matter if this is part of the plan.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (43 traders, as of Jan 21, 2025).