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MANIFOLD
Will it rain in Ripton Vermont on August 5th 2023?
12
Ṁ230Ṁ1k
resolved Aug 6
Resolved
NO

I have a weather station which I will use to help resolve this, also, I will be physically present and outside so I don't expect that this will be ambiguous. "August 5th" in this case will start at 8:00 and end at 23:59.

I may trade on this market.

(Probably as a hedge)

(I am going to a wedding on this day)

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predictedNO

How did it go?

predictedYES

@HawsF Day of was sunny, but rain the day before washed out all the roads to the original venue so we had to move it. It was pretty crazy but went super well all things considered.

looking sunny

predictedYES

Current forecast looks favorable for no rain.

European ECMWF model says:

10% percentil 0mm

mean or median (not sure which one) 3.5mm

90% percentil 9.6mm

The base rate I believe is around 30%