Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.4% from March to April 2022?
Economics
9
4
Ṁ512
resolved May 11
Resolved
YES
Resolves to CPI report ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm ), scheduled to be released on May 11, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. May 11, 9:03am: One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for March 2022: 1.2% https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04122022.pdf May 11, 11:01am: Oops, accidentally resolved to last month's number. The correct number was 0.33%.
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predicted YES
This was a mistake. I accidentally used last month's numbers. In retrospect, the question (which I shamelessly copied from Polymarket) was poorly worded and conflicts with the resolution criterion in the description.
predicted YES
Lol this market was improperly resolved. Actual number was .33%.
I think it's more likely than not.
bought Ṁ25 of YES
Wondering why Polymarket is trading so low... https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-inflation-be-more-than-0pt4-from-march-to-april-2022
bought Ṁ20 of YES
It appears the monthly number hasn't been below 0.4% since August 2021 (and event hat was just a dip). Any reason that number was chosen as the cutoff?

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