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Will @realDonaldTrump be suspended from Twitter?

7% chance

If Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024, will he get banned from any major social media site at any point during his term?

38% chance

Will @realDonaldTrump have a tweet deleted?

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It's a YES
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

predictedNO

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1586059953311137792?s=20&t=YJXVIBxqlZbCeXMP1WbQ3Q

Maybe Musk will push for more free speech on twitter and Trump will be unbanned as a result.

It's not impossible but 30% seems pretty high to me. All of the reasons for the initial ban of Trump still stand, as does the perhaps more cynical point that Twitter doesn't want to make liberals angry.

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Will @realDonaldTrump be suspended from Twitter?

7% chance

If Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024, will he get banned from any major social media site at any point during his term?

38% chance

Will @realDonaldTrump have a tweet deleted?

36% chance

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