Will the "Waluigi Effect" score higher on Google Trends in May 1st than April 1st?
23
70
690
resolved May 8
Resolved
NO

Background: The Waluigi Effect

(If GTrends isn't granular to compare particular days, I'll use the week or highest resolution data which contains both April 1st and May 1st of 2023.)

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Google Trends is only showing info up to April 28th, so I'll wait until May 1st data to appear before resolving. Also the current data looks...perplexing.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Doesn't look like a high bar to clear from what I see, but maybe the determination will be made from different data.

predicted NO

@Muskwalker Huh, I just did that check yesterday and it showed 65 for April 1. I wonder why Google trends isn't being consistent - pretty concerning for defining this market.

predicted YES

@Gabrielle 1) I don't know if time zones are a factor, which might make a difference

2) I do know that these ranks are apparently relative: "Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term." (For this screenshot I chose a timeframe starting from the day this market opened.)

3) The above screenshot is worldwide numbers; the search defaults to US, which has weirdly different data: 80 for the no-quoted term on April 1st, and its peak on April 8—a date where 'worldwide' has 0 for both terms.

bought Ṁ150 of NO