Background: Can Liz Truss Survive?
Resolves YES if Liz Truss is the prime minister of the United Kingdrom on January 1st, 2023 (for the full duration of the day).
🏅 Top traders
I don't think the latest Above The Fold is all that fair to Andy Martin on this market. He was quoting FT columnist Stephen Bush in that comment, who was wagering far more value in terms of professional credibility than the hundred odd M$ Andy backed YES with. And did he even make a loss on this trade?
@RobinFoster Oh yeah the quote in Above the Fold made it sound like Andy wrote that - I assume that was just a mistake because the way quotes are formatted is visually almost the same as the way replies are formatted!
LOL. This market is way overestimating tories' capacity to make a new government.
Well, shame on me for underestimating the volatility of current-day UK politics. I wonder who'll be next in line for the sacrificial altar.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63309400 Liz Truss resigns as UK prime minister
"Leadership contest will take place within the next week" and "Truss says she will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen."
How long does Liz Truss have left? Last week I put the chance that she would be ousted before the next election at 90 per cent, but thought she had a 50 per cent chance of lasting until September of next year (the earliest she can be removed without some kind of rule change or via actions outside the Conservative party rule book).
Quite a lot has happened since then, and a number of you have asked what my current prediction is.
Nonetheless — and as I write this I am aware this may turn out to be one of the stupidest things I have ever written — I am dubious that she will be removed any time soon. Almost every Conservative MP I speak to is of the opinion that she has to go sooner rather than later, and that she will. But when you ask them how, they will then reveal some hare-brained scheme involving someone else taking political damage to actually facilitate the change. The left of the party is reluctant to oust Liz Truss for fear they will be tagged as the enemy within if they do and will be left in an even weaker and more perilous position than they are now. Many on the right of the party and in the European Research Group are sticking with Truss.
As such, it still feels to me that it is about as likely as it is not that Truss’s government will stagger on until the autumn of next year, when she can be got rid of without anyone in the parliamentary party having to assert themselves or get organised to do so.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/19/uk/suella-braverman-liz-truss-departure-gbr-intl/index.html Liz Truss plunged into deeper turmoil after Suella Braverman leaves as Britain’s Home Secretary
Reversed my position on the back of the past week's public knife-sharpening and Truss's own shell-shocked performance in parliament today.
still just arbing, it's fascinating how much two extremely correlated markets are drifting.
George Osbourne has said he reckons she'll be gone before Christmas, for what it's worth. It seems a bit tight to me though - the timeline for Johnson was resignation in early July then remaining as PM until Truss replaced him in early September. Assuming a similar timeline Truss doesn't have long to announce her resignation. Sky news has an interesting article on the routes to ousting her
@Yolotomassi They will try to find a way to not have a vote by party members this time, which will shorten the timeline significantly
The eventual replacement of Truss would have to somehow shore up the economy in order to not be immediately thrown to the hounds, and I don't think that's possible in the next month and a half.
Base rate essentially zero for so short a tenure, but I have no other knowledge of UK politics.
@BoltonBailey Her political credibility is basically the lowest of any new PM in living memory, but I still think she'll hold on past the end of the year since if the conservative party dumps ANOTHER leader in quick succession they might well be pressured into a general election, which they'd almost certainly lose.