resolved Jan 2
Will Liz Truss be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?

Background: Can Liz Truss Survive?

Resolves YES if Liz Truss is the prime minister of the United Kingdrom on January 1st, 2023 (for the full duration of the day).

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RobinFoster avatar
Robin Foster

I don't think the latest Above The Fold is all that fair to Andy Martin on this market. He was quoting FT columnist Stephen Bush in that comment, who was wagering far more value in terms of professional credibility than the hundred odd M$ Andy backed YES with. And did he even make a loss on this trade?

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 2%

@RobinFoster Oh yeah the quote in Above the Fold made it sound like Andy wrote that - I assume that was just a mistake because the way quotes are formatted is visually almost the same as the way replies are formatted!

MP avatar
MPbought Ṁ10 of YES

LOL. This market is way overestimating tories' capacity to make a new government.

Yolotomassi avatar
Yolotomassibought Ṁ10 of YES

@MP Agreed

RickMcCoy avatar
Rick McCoypredicted YES at 2%

Well, shame on me for underestimating the volatility of current-day UK politics. I wonder who'll be next in line for the sacrificial altar.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ100 of NO Liz Truss resigns as UK prime minister

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 2%

"Leadership contest will take place within the next week" and "Truss says she will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen."

AndyMartin avatar
Andy Martinbought Ṁ125 of YES

How long does Liz Truss have left? Last week I put the chance that she would be ousted before the next election at 90 per cent, but thought she had a 50 per cent chance of lasting until September of next year (the earliest she can be removed without some kind of rule change or via actions outside the Conservative party rule book).

Quite a lot has happened since then, and a number of you have asked what my current prediction is.

Nonetheless — and as I write this I am aware this may turn out to be one of the stupidest things I have ever written — I am dubious that she will be removed any time soon. Almost every Conservative MP I speak to is of the opinion that she has to go sooner rather than later, and that she will. But when you ask them how, they will then reveal some hare-brained scheme involving someone else taking political damage to actually facilitate the change. The left of the party is reluctant to oust Liz Truss for fear they will be tagged as the enemy within if they do and will be left in an even weaker and more perilous position than they are now. Many on the right of the party and in the European Research Group are sticking with Truss.

As such, it still feels to me that it is about as likely as it is not that Truss’s government will stagger on until the autumn of next year, when she can be got rid of without anyone in the parliamentary party having to assert themselves or get organised to do so.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ50 of NO Liz Truss plunged into deeper turmoil after Suella Braverman leaves as Britain’s Home Secretary

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ20 of NO

Reversed my position on the back of the past week's public knife-sharpening and Truss's own shell-shocked performance in parliament today.

AlexL avatar
Alex Lbought Ṁ17 of NO

still just arbing, it's fascinating how much two extremely correlated markets are drifting.

Yolotomassi avatar
Yolotomassibought Ṁ25 of YES

George Osbourne has said he reckons she'll be gone before Christmas, for what it's worth. It seems a bit tight to me though - the timeline for Johnson was resignation in early July then remaining as PM until Truss replaced him in early September. Assuming a similar timeline Truss doesn't have long to announce her resignation. Sky news has an interesting article on the routes to ousting her

amoebus avatar
amoebuspredicted NO at 56%

@Yolotomassi They will try to find a way to not have a vote by party members this time, which will shorten the timeline significantly

RickMcCoy avatar
Rick McCoybought Ṁ100 of YES

The eventual replacement of Truss would have to somehow shore up the economy in order to not be immediately thrown to the hounds, and I don't think that's possible in the next month and a half.

AlexL avatar
Alex Lbought Ṁ50 of NO


BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Baileybought Ṁ10 of YES

Base rate essentially zero for so short a tenure, but I have no other knowledge of UK politics.

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldivesbought Ṁ30 of YES

@BoltonBailey Her political credibility is basically the lowest of any new PM in living memory, but I still think she'll hold on past the end of the year since if the conservative party dumps ANOTHER leader in quick succession they might well be pressured into a general election, which they'd almost certainly lose.