What will be the highest impact outreach initiative for Manifold in Q4 2023?
30
297
2.3k
resolved Jan 1
100%90%
NYT article by Kevin Roose
1.4%
Debatecon 4 sponsorship
0.4%
Fishtank S2 sponsorship
1.9%
Live debate with Destiny
1.0%
Live event with Aella
0.5%
No impactful initiatives
0.4%
ChinaTalk essay contest
0.3%
Live with LK-99 authors
0.4%
Gaming creator sponsorship
0.2%
The Economist partnership
4%Other

I will resolve this market to whichever outreach initiative I deem to be most impactful.

An "outreach initiative" is a collaboration, partnership, sponsorship, or hosted event (non-exclusive list) that involves working with another person or entity outside Manifold and isn't just be a new feature on the platform. The initiative must happen in Q4 2023.

I will assess impact holistically, valuing events which boost DAUs (daily active users) very highly but also considering harder-to-quantify things like increased prestige and legitimacy.

If there are no impactful outreach initiatives, I will resolve to that answer (rather than N/A-ing).

I will prefer answers that are precise and useful over ones that are technically correct but vague.

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Live event with Aella

Manifest was a live event with Aella ... ?

bought Ṁ10 NYT article by Kevin... YES

Guys, this seems probable…

bought Ṁ5 of NYT article by Kevin... YES

@oh Bet it up a lot, then you are daring people to work hard and make one of the other options win instead. It has to be the leader so far though.

bought Ṁ10 of No impactful initiat... YES

@Eliza So… what do you recommend I do?

bought Ṁ10 of NYT article by Kevin... YES

@oh Kind of looks like it already moved!

@Eliza Yeah I don’t know how no one else thought to add it, and I left it undervalued cuz I’m not a fan of risk lol

bought Ṁ1,000 of No impactful initiat... NO

@oh I was thinking about excluding the NYT article as an answer since it was in the works before the creation of this market. But I didn't before you created this answer. So it will count.

Also, I consider the NYT article impactful, so I probably wouldn't bet on "No impact"...

bought Ṁ45 of NYT article by Kevin... YES

@SG Thanks for weighing in! Yeah, was thinking that the effort was really last quarter, but the impact was this quarter.

bought Ṁ10 of The Economist partne... YES

Do you plan to do a partnership with The Economist?

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