Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

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Background: Nord Stream Pipeline 'Sabotage' Sets Up New Crisis Between NATO and Russia

I will resolve this market once there is definitive evidence of the nation, organization, or individual responsible for the attack, according to my own personal judgment. Official statements by the US or Russia alleging that they did or did not carry out the attack will not count if not backed by hard evidence.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

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@SG ?

bought Ṁ3,500 YES

A journalist from WSJ figured out who did it: https://archive.is/lUa9m

@SG

"The Journal spoke to four senior Ukrainian defense and security officials who either participated in or had direct knowledge of the plot. All of them said the pipelines were a legitimate target in Ukraine’s war of defense against Russia.

Portions of their account were corroborated by a nearly two-year German police investigation into the attack, which has obtained evidence including email, mobile and satellite phones communications, as well as fingerprints and DNA samples from the alleged sabotage team. The Germany inquiry hasn’t directly linked President Zelensky to the clandestine operation."

predicts YES

https://x.com/gatewaypundit/status/1723743905240236166?s=20

I think this can be resolved YES purely on the basis of the rhetoric coming from the entities under suspicion of doing it.

The more interesting question now is how deeply involved the United States Government was in this operation.

predicts YES

@Akzzz123 does this image look AI-generated or is it just me?

@Akzzz123 Can a Ukrainian official against the Ukrainian president be considered "NATO-aligned"? Then sure, I guess he can be seen as "anti-Russian"

@CodeandSolder

Not sure. It's what they've used in their article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

predicts YES

@CodeandSolder The number of fingers (including those in the reflections) seems ok

predicts YES

@mariopasquato to be clear, I'm not suggesting it is (P<5%), it just has that vibe to it IMO

predicts NO

All of the reporting so far has used known unreliable or reasonably dubious sources. Have there been any good information leaks or evidence?

Pro-Ukrainian group

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

Which one is yes?

https://unherd.com/thepost/osint-picks-holes-in-seymour-hershs-nord-stream-claims/?s=09

Cui bono?

Seymour Hersh says the US did it. https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

@njmkw /SG/will-seymour-hersh-retract-his-arti

Hmm skimming the article it seems it is all based on one anonymous source? Or is there some other evidence?

Seems Hersch has done great investigative work but has received criticism for

His stories, often alleging vast and shadowy conspiracies, have made startling — and often internally inconsistent — accusations, based on little or no proof beyond a handful of anonymous "officials"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh