Will the United States be in a recession by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

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predicted YES

For example, @jack just now resolved the question of whether there was a US recession in 2022.

predicted YES

No, recessions are always backdated by up to 6 months. This shouldn't be resolved yet.

predicted YES

@NickAllen also in an election year I would expect any confirmation of recession in 2023 to not drop until possibly as late as November '24.

predicted YES

@NickAllen Yeah, it seems pretty optimistic to think it's available now. Then again, I think experts will probably still be disagreeing about this question a year from now, so I dunno.

predicted YES

@AndrewHartman I would accept whatever the NBER says, but this needs to allow for backdating.

@traders Waiting for final data to resolve. Give me a week.

bought Ṁ1,180 of NO

@SBF What data? Data is already here, this resolves NO.

bought Ṁ140 of NO

Non farm payrolls: +187k

Unemployment rate: 3.5% (-0.1)

The clock is ticking for the bears

predicted YES

arb with?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Can anybody explain why is this significantly different then the Metaculus question?


predicted NO

maybe because 'by jan 1 2023' vs 'by the end of 2023' are almost a year apart

predicted YES
predicted NO

@jacksonpolack I got an extra coffee for today. Thanks for the answer!

Needs an agreed-upon standard to measure by; there's a lot of disagreement about what constitutes a recession, and you might have to wait 2-4 months if you want to know what the feds think counted.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@TylerColeman @SBF what metric are you using? this is super important!

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO

~50% is much higher than the market thinks, right? If Manifold is accurate, people should be holding a lot more cash than they are!

@JacyAnthis I agree, although I personally find the resolution criteria too vague to justify participating

@JacyAnthis market might irrationally exuberant? Never happened before!

Is the question about whether it will be in a recession at the moment that 2023 ends, or whether it will enter a recession at any time between creation of the market and that date? If the former, then I suggest the "by" in the question should instead be "at."

@akrasiac Seconding this question

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@VivaLaPanda I'm pretty sure it's the latter.

Will the United States be in a recession by the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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