Will the United States be in a recession by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

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predicted YES

For example, @jack just now resolved the question of whether there was a US recession in 2022.

predicted YES

No, recessions are always backdated by up to 6 months. This shouldn't be resolved yet.

predicted YES

@NickAllen also in an election year I would expect any confirmation of recession in 2023 to not drop until possibly as late as November '24.

predicted YES

@NickAllen Yeah, it seems pretty optimistic to think it's available now. Then again, I think experts will probably still be disagreeing about this question a year from now, so I dunno.

predicted YES

@AndrewHartman I would accept whatever the NBER says, but this needs to allow for backdating.

@traders Waiting for final data to resolve. Give me a week.

bought Ṁ1,180 of NO

@SBF What data? Data is already here, this resolves NO.

bought Ṁ140 of NO

Non farm payrolls: +187k

Unemployment rate: 3.5% (-0.1)

The clock is ticking for the bears

predicted YES

arb with?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Can anybody explain why is this significantly different then the Metaculus question?

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-ja

predicted NO

maybe because 'by jan 1 2023' vs 'by the end of 2023' are almost a year apart

predicted YES
predicted NO

@jacksonpolack I got an extra coffee for today. Thanks for the answer!

Needs an agreed-upon standard to measure by; there's a lot of disagreement about what constitutes a recession, and you might have to wait 2-4 months if you want to know what the feds think counted.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@TylerColeman @SBF what metric are you using? this is super important!

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO

~50% is much higher than the market thinks, right? If Manifold is accurate, people should be holding a lot more cash than they are!

@JacyAnthis I agree, although I personally find the resolution criteria too vague to justify participating

@JacyAnthis market might irrationally exuberant? Never happened before!

Is the question about whether it will be in a recession at the moment that 2023 ends, or whether it will enter a recession at any time between creation of the market and that date? If the former, then I suggest the "by" in the question should instead be "at."

@akrasiac Seconding this question

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@VivaLaPanda I'm pretty sure it's the latter.

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