Will the United States be in a recession by the end of 2023?
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closes Jan 1
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MP avatar
MPbought Ṁ140 of NO

Non farm payrolls: +187k

Unemployment rate: 3.5% (-0.1)

The clock is ticking for the bears

Ev avatar
Evpredicts YES

arb with?

palcu avatar
Alex Palcuiebought Ṁ10 of NO

Can anybody explain why is this significantly different then the Metaculus question?

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-ja

3 replies
jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicts NO

maybe because 'by jan 1 2023' vs 'by the end of 2023' are almost a year apart

NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicts YES
palcu avatar
Alex Palcuiepredicts NO

@jacksonpolack I got an extra coffee for today. Thanks for the answer!

TylerColeman avatar
Tyler Coleman

Needs an agreed-upon standard to measure by; there's a lot of disagreement about what constitutes a recession, and you might have to wait 2-4 months if you want to know what the feds think counted.

2 replies
saulmunn avatar
Saul Munnbought Ṁ50 of YES

@TylerColeman @SBF what metric are you using? this is super important!

saulmunn avatar
Saul Munnpredicts YES
Ace avatar
Acebought Ṁ10 of NO

~50% is much higher than the market thinks, right? If Manifold is accurate, people should be holding a lot more cash than they are!

2 replies
DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slagh

@JacyAnthis I agree, although I personally find the resolution criteria too vague to justify participating

CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barry

@JacyAnthis market might irrationally exuberant? Never happened before!

akrasiac avatar
Joel

Is the question about whether it will be in a recession at the moment that 2023 ends, or whether it will enter a recession at any time between creation of the market and that date? If the former, then I suggest the "by" in the question should instead be "at."

2 replies
VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda

@akrasiac Seconding this question

Lorxus avatar
Lorxus Mathfoxbought Ṁ55 of YES

@VivaLaPanda I'm pretty sure it's the latter.

ManifoldDream avatar

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