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For example, @jack just now resolved the question of whether there was a US recession in 2022.
@NickAllen also in an election year I would expect any confirmation of recession in 2023 to not drop until possibly as late as November '24.
@NickAllen Yeah, it seems pretty optimistic to think it's available now. Then again, I think experts will probably still be disagreeing about this question a year from now, so I dunno.
@AndrewHartman I would accept whatever the NBER says, but this needs to allow for backdating.
Can anybody explain why is this significantly different then the Metaculus question?
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-ja
@JacyAnthis I agree, although I personally find the resolution criteria too vague to justify participating