Which news network will broadcast the first debate between Trump and Harris, if it takes place?
55
1kαΉ€22k
resolved Sep 11
100%98%
ABC
0.3%
CNN
0.1%
Fox News
0.3%
MSNBC
0.4%
NBC
0.3%
CBS
0.2%
PBS
0.3%
C-SPAN
0.2%
Other

This market will be canceled if the debate doesn't happen before election day

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bought αΉ€300 NO

Seems like current consensus after Trump presser is that he seems to be on for the ABC debate, but Kamala still is a no on Fox unless something else I haven’t seen has came up?

bought αΉ€50 NO

What if it ends up being a jointly hosted debate, will both resolve "yes"?

bought αΉ€7 NO

Honestly I didn't think about this, what do you think would be a fair way to resolve the market?

If you can resolve two answers, then I think both would get "yes"

Okay I think I would resolve them both at 50%.

in dependent MC, the resolved answers have to sum to 1. so you can resolve two answers at 50%, but not 2 at 100% YES

(edit: was replying to the above, oops)

Not sure if Kamala is willing to agree to Fox News, this market could get interesting

Kamala has not agreed to the debate

sold αΉ€315 YES

I feel like I shot myself in the foot when I realized this. I feel like I bought Fox YESes too early.

Yeah but most people felt like Trump was the one holding the debate back

I shoot for the moon, I guess. Maybe they'll negotiate something out for another network? πŸ˜…

The potential for CANCEL makes the payout structure for this market interesting. Getting refunded for that makes the risk factor silly.

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