Will I think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?
61%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nqwzrpkPvviLHWXaE/apply-to-the-redwood-research-mechanistic-interpretability
Context: I work at Redwood.
REMIX starts on 12/19/2022.
Resolves to N/A if REMIX is canceled (very unlikely as it starts on Monday).
Edit: ex-post EV analysis
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Noa Nabeshimais predicting NO at 64%
Is this relative to the baseline of the next best thing Redwood and Remix participants would do with the time+resources or something else?
Ryan Greenblatt
@NoaNabeshima the criteria is "suppose we had decided not to do remix and instead used the resources elsewhere etc. Would this have been higher expected utility? (given ex-post knowledge about the quality of remix and what we otherwise would have done)." I might edit this into the description.
YES shares
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