Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?
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2025
50%
chance

Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.

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I assume that you're including control research as "alignment research"

By "alignment research" do you include things like working on the alignment plan, or writing docs proposing alignment research directions? E.g. would writing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-aligning-narrowly-superhuman-models count?

@BuckShlegeris Writing counts.