By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
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38
Ṁ12k
2030
18%
01/01/2025
62%
01/01/2026
76%
01/01/2028
82%
01/01/2030

See https://arcprize.org/arc-agi-pub.

This allows for arbitrary API usage unlike the ARC-AGI prize.

I will resolve based on when the date when the method is first reported even if it is not submitted until substantially later (due to e.g. no public API).

I will apply a restriction roughly in line with the $10,000 runtime cost contraint, though it is unclear how this should resolve with respect to private models with no known API price.

I will exclude solutions that seem heavily overfit based on the semi-private evaluation set.

(Cut off data is resolved based on midnight PT.)

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If 85% is reached on the main ARC-AGI prize track and there isn't a clear reason to think this wouldn't transfer to ARC-AGI-Pub, I would also resolve this market to true even if no one submits to ARC-AGI-Pub.

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