This question resolves to YES if the Future Fund pays an AI Worldview Prize for a qualifying published analysis that decreases their position to below 7% on "P(misalignment x-risk|AGI): Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go extinct or drastically curtail its future potential due to loss of control of AGI."

Details about the Future Fund’s AI Worldview Prize are at https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-funds-ai-worldview-prize/. Especially note: "For the first two weeks after it is announced—until October 7—the rules and conditions of the prize competition may be changed at the discretion of the Future Fund. After that, we reserve the right to clarify the conditions of the prizes wherever they are unclear or have wacky unintended results." In the event the prize condition changes, this question will resolve based on any prize of substantial similarity and matching intent to the original prize.

This question's resolution will not be affected by any other prize awarded, including prizes awarded by the superforecaster judge panel. However, a prize paid for decreasing their position to below 3% will cause this question to resolve to YES.