This market will resolve to "YES" only if the following conditions are met:
Publication: A complete or substantial decipherment (translation of at least 10 consecutive pages) is published in a recognized, peer-reviewed academic journal.
Institutional Validation: The Beinecke Rare Book & Manuscript Library at Yale University (or an equivalent official body of Yale University) officially acknowledges the decipherment as valid in a formal statement or press release.
Expert Consensus: At least two independent experts in cryptography or historical linguistics, who were not involved in the decipherment project, publicly confirm the validity of the methodology.
This market will resolve to "NO" if:
No such confirmation is provided by the deadline.
Claims of decipherment are made but remain unverified or are rejected by the academic community (as has occurred with previous claims).
Note: If a promising analysis is ongoing but not yet finalized by the deadline, I reserve the right to extend the market duration once for up to 6 months to allow for peer-review completion.
1,000People are also trading
As the creator of this market and lead researcher on this project, I am excited to announce that Milestone 1 has been successfully completed.
We have achieved internal validation of our underlying linguistic algorithm across three distinct sections of the manuscript: the Herbal, Astrological, and Balneological folios. This confirms that the decipherment is not a localized coincidence but a systematic, repeatable method that holds up across different thematic areas of the text.
Proceeding to Milestone 2 (Statistical Entropy Analysis) to further verify the natural language patterns. Stay tuned for further updates
"I am the creator of this market and I am currently working on a dedicated Voynich research project. My 95% confidence reflects the results I am seeing in my own work. I am not just speculating on outside news; I am betting on the methodology and breakthroughs achieved in my current project. I expect to move this into the official peer-review and validation stage (Yale/Beinecke) within the timeframe of this market. Stay tuned."