As of this market's close time, will Manifold (this market) or FiveThirtyEight give the person who actually wins the presidential election the higher chance?

For example, if Manifold predicts 60% Trump and 40% Harris, and FiveThirtyEight predicts 55% Trump and 45% Harris, and Harris actually wins, this market resolves to FiveThirtyEight.

For the purposes of this market, the winner of the presidential election is determined by the resolution of Jack's market linked above.

If a candidate not included in the FiveThirtyEight model wins, this market resolves Manifold.

Although FiveThirtyEight models the possibility of no Electoral College winner, we will be ignoring that for the purposes of this market; for example, if FiveThirtyEight predicts a 50% chance of a Trump victory, and there is no EC majority but Trump wins by contingent election, this market will treat it like Trump won with FiveThirtyEight having predicted a 50% chance of it.