Background:
With the House being so close and there being intra-Republican discord, some have expressed concerns over a Speaker not being elected on a timely basis, leading to delays in election certification, potentially necessitating reaching deeper into the line of succession for an acting President. For this reason or any other reason, will anyone other than Donald Trump or JD Vance hold the powers of the US presidency right after Biden's term ends?
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if anyone other than Donald Trump or JD Vance holds the powers of the Presidency (i.e. is Acting President or President) on January 20th, 2025 at 12:01pm Eastern Time.
If the YES condition does not happen, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 100 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If the random integer is 47, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves N/A.
Background on resolution criteria:
The purpose of this market is to allow betting on extremely long odds for this event. Given the resolution criteria, this market's price should end up at x/(x+(1-x)/100), where x is the actual probability of the event. For example, if you think the event has an 0.2% chance of happening, this market should be at ~17%.
1,000@Robincvgr your random number is: 92
Salt: xc3oa4bjzl, round: 4732470 (signature b08dd4ad8875e3e2278393bd56613f0f62b46669c9b941fc21e6e51c58bb33806b5abf0a78dd256be58a2f414c9ad87b0360defc50377e6c66d8bb3b1e7305e055014be075a3155cae8adcc816e5454cbe41d871e5009a6e008f1451dec1f726)
@Robincvgr you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 4732468 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4732470, salt: xc3oa4bjzl.