Will Sergei Shoigu or Valery Gerasimov get fired, demoted, killed, imprisoned, transferred to Siberia, etc. first?
18
150Ṁ2236resolved May 14
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%97%
Sergei Shoigu
3%
Valery Gerasimov
Sergei Shoigu currently serves as the Minister of Defence of Russia.
Valery Gerasimov currently serves as the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine.
The Russian government currently has a pretty high turnover rate.
Which one will no longer appear to be performing their job functions first? Which one will no longer be making decisions that matter (within the Russian Government) first?
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to the person who gets fired, removed, demoted, killed, imprisoned, placed under house arrest, disappeared, transferred to Siberia, etc. first.
While the above sentence is relatively expansive, I will wait to resolve it until I am confident that one of the above criteria (or similar) apply first.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ332 | |
| 2 | Ṁ26 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?
87% chance
If Putin is forced out of power, will he be placed under house arrest, exiled, or similar?
28% chance
If Putin is forced out of power, will he be placed under house arrest, exiled, or similar?
44% chance
Will Putin die in office?
77% chance
Will either Putin or Zelenskyy be deposed, die or leave office first?
Conditional on regime change in Russia, will Putin be executed or assassinated before 2034?
27% chance
Will Putin be assassinated during his presidency?
20% chance
Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have served in the military?
67% chance
Will any more top brass on the Russian side die before the end of the war on Ukraine? [See Description]
85% chance
Will Putin be embalmed within 1 year of death like other leaders in Russia?
5% chance