If someone investigates Manifold's accuracy before and after charity donations were turned off, will they find a significant decrease? | Manifold

If someone investigates Manifold's accuracy before and after charity donations were turned off, will they find a significant decrease?

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resolved Jul 18

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N/A

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Refers to whatever methodology is used by the investigator, as long as it seems fair and accuate. (People who care about charity leaving the platform and also being better predictors is not a confounder; that's an acceptible cause of a decrease in accuracy that would resolve this market YES. However I would like it to account for other things like a greater user base due to a new community joining.)

Resolves NO if there is no change or an increase in accuracy.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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predictedYES

If anyone is interested: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-investigated-will-it-be-found-th?r=Um9iZXJ0Q291c2luZWF1

predictedNO

@IsaacKing this should probably N/A right, as charity was never removed?

predictedYES

@HenriThunberg I sorta figure leave it up until the program ends. No issue if it is N/A'ed, but I'd just make a replacement market.

@RobertCousineau Go for it :)

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If investigated, will it be found that mana being able to direct charitable donations increases manifolds accuracy?

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