How many people will I consider core members of the Seattle Manifold Meetups (at the end of February)
How many people will I consider core members of the Seattle Manifold Meetups (at the end of February)
5
335Ṁ1611resolved Apr 8
100%98.1%
1-4
0.7%
5-6
0.3%
7-8
0.2%
9-10
0.2%
11-12
0.2%
13-14
0.2%
15+
This market will resolve to the bucket containing the number of people who I consider core members of the Seattle Manifold Community, who also attend meetups regularly.
For someone to count, they have to attend at least 1 meetup in the last month and count as an 'engaged user' by Manifolds metrics.
For more information on the meetups, see this Manifold Community Fund Application and/or these markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@RobertCousineau I'm at risk of losing my role? I'm going to have to go grassroots on getting some attendees.
@RobertCousineau I won’t be back stateside till the end of the month, so will miss anything super soon FYI.
Also isn't this a fortnightly meeting? So they only need to have attended both meetings in the previous month to count?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.