If Harris wins the 2024 election, will there be another attempted/successful attack on the capitol before July 1, 2025?
➕
Plus
18
Ṁ670
2025
36%
chance

If Harris comes out on top, will there be an attempt to repeat Jan. 6?

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

guys im sorry i meant to make a good market and i worded it really badly. my apologies, i did not mean to spark any anger.

Per your comment below, can you commit to the criteria being "thousands (aka 2000+) of people attempting to trespass into a federal building (at once)"?

If so, that's actually a pretty clear and bettable resolution criteria .

guys im sorry i meant to make a good market and i worded it really badly. my apologies, i did not mean to spark any anger.

I was going to buy no, then I realized whoever made this would probably count a Trump supporter throwing a burnt cigarette at the ground in front of the capital as an attempted coup, so I don’t know what to buy anymore.

This is far too vague of a market. If you're going to be making markets, the least you can do is put in the absolute minimum amount of effort, which you clearly haven't -- you haven't defined any terms whatsoever. Lazy lazy lazy.

How does this resolve?

@JosephReichert if harris wins the election, then i will wait until jul 1 2025 to see if there is an attempted insurrection. if she loses the election, it resolved "NO."

@Rillaboom27 what counts as insurrection?

@JosephReichert thousands of people attempting to trespass into a federal building imo

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules